Lecture Material for HON 301

Future Studies

Forecasting and Decision Making

How We Got To This Point - Rise and Fall of Civilizations

Where We Are Now - The Anthropocene

Generational Perspective

Limits To Growth

The Modern Corporation

Special Topic - Inequality

Paradigm Shift

Meet the Future

The Third Wave

The Singularity

The Technium

Glimpses of the Future


Perspectives:

Technology Memoir: "The Telephone Tree", By Tony Scarlatos, The Southampton Literary Review, Volume IV No.2, Summer 2010

Music Video: "The Future's So Bright I Gotta Wear Shades", by Timbuk 3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qrriKcwvlY

Cartoon: "The Jetsons Intro", by Hanna-Barbera Productions
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FyinD6ZDqeg

Op-Ed: "The Darkness Where the Future Should Be", by Michelle Goldberg, NY Times, 1/24/2020
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/24/opinion/sunday/william-gibson-agency.html

Talk: "We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters", by Peter Thiel, Yale School of Management
https://som.yale.edu/blog/peter-thiel-at-yale-we-wanted-flying-cars-instead-we-got-140-characters

Data: "6 new findings about Millenials", By Bruce Drake, Pew Research, 3/7/2014
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/03/07/6-new-findings-about-millennials/

DVD: "What Will the Future Be Like?", with David Pogue, NOVA, WGBH Educational Foundation, November 2012
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/tech/what-future-be-like.html


Future Studies

Special Topic: Prophecy

Futurists

Predictions for the Year 2000, from the Ladies Home Journal, December 1900

Predictions for 2033 from Forbes Magazine, 2013

"15 Theses About the Digital Future", PewResearch Internet Project
http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/03/11/15-theses-about-the-digital-future/

Future Studies Timeline, compiled by Janna Anderson of Elon University

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Forecasting and Decision Making

Video: "The Galton Board: Math In Motion", Four Pines Films
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QuPHf1xi-4

Visualization of the normal distribution (binomial distribution) in probability, invented by Sir Francis Galton in 1876.

Video: Pascal's Triangle, Sierpinski's Triangle, and Probability
https://ed.ted.com/lessons/the-mathematical-secrets-of-pascal-s-triangle-wajdi-mohamed-ratemi

Definition: The Anna Karenina Principle
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anna_Karenina_principle

The first sentence of Tolstoy's novel presents a theory about success and failure applicable in many domains.

"An Overview of Forecasting Methodology", By David S. Walonick
https://stanford.edu/~knutson/nfc/walonick93.pdf


Cognitive Bias

Critique: "The Silver Bullet Syndrome: A Critique of Decision Analysis", By Tony Scarlatos, 2010

How good are humans at making rational choices? Limitations of Decision Analysis appear on page 3.

Video: "The Dunning-Kruger Effect"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOLmD_WVY-E

Video: "John Cleese on Stupidity"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvVPdyYeaQU

Overestimation of competence is proportional to lack of expertise.

Bill Gates’ review of Hans Rosling’s book, “Factfulness”
https://www.gatesnotes.com/Books/Factfulness

Video: “How Not To Be Ignorant About The World”, Hans Rosling TED Talk
https://www.ted.com/talks/hans_and_ola_rosling_how_not_to_be_ignorant_about_the_world

Interactive: World Health Organization data from GapMinder.org (Hans Rosling)
https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$chart-type=bubbles

Visualization of trends in world health and wealth that contradict popular misconceptions.

Factfulness 10 Rules of Thumb
https://www.gapminder.org/factfulness/instincts/

Ten cognitive biases that obscure an accurate view of the world.

“The Overton Window”, Mackinac Center
https://www.mackinac.org/OvertonWindow

The possible is constrained by the political.

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How We Got To This Point - The Rise and Fall of Civilizations

• Rise of civilizations:

Special Topic: Human Nature

Maslow's Heirarchy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Expanded_Maslow%27s_Needs.webp

Dialectical Materialism and Psychology

Special Topic: Engines of Innovation

DVD: "How We Got To Now - The Story of Clean", By Steven Johnson, PBS, 2014
http://video.pbs.org/program/how-we-got-now/

The many unlikely stories and unsung heroes that paved the way for the modern world.

Article: "Wonder Dog", By Melissa Fay Greene, New York Times Magazine, 2/2/2012
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/05/magazine/wonder-dog.html?pagewanted=all

Article: "Those Puppy Dog Eyes You Can't Resist? Thank Evolution.", by James Gorman, NY Times, 6/17/2019
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/17/science/dogs-eyebrows-evolution.html

Video: "We Met the World's First Domesticated Foxes", Verge Science, 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4dwjS_eI-lQ

Video: "Spanish Jimenta Horsemanship", from the Guns, Germs, and Steel documentary
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2YXusV8q1cI

Are dogs and horses a form of technology?

Bill Gates has proven the value of being a history buff.

Gobekli Tepe
https://www.bighistoryproject.com/chapters/4#creating-settlements

This ancient temple predates agricultural settlements by 2000 years.

DVD: "Guns, Germs, and Steel", By Jared Diamond, National Geographic, 2005
http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/guns-germs-and-steel/ (parts 1 & 2)

Diamond's hypothesis from "Guns, Germs, and Steel" as a flow chart.

Diamond's hypothesis from "Guns, Germs, and Steel" as a cartoon.

A documentary based on the Pulitzer Prize-winning book about how European societies came to colonize the globe.

• The fall of civilizations:

Video: "Why Societies Collapse", talk by Jared Diamond, TED Talks
http://www.ted.com/talks/jared_diamond_on_why_societies_collapse.html

Themes from Diamond's subsequent book, "Collapse", which studies the failure of several ancient societies.

Article: "The Self-Destruction of the One Percent", By Chrystia Freeland, NY Times, 10/13/2012
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/14/opinion/sunday/the-self-destruction-of-the-1-percent.html?pagewanted=all

Reflections on the fall of the mediaeval superpower, Venice, and its implications for societies today.

"The History of Nauru: How The World's Wealthiest Country Lost Everything", NowThis World, 12/14/2017
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aG_eaAt2JN0

Lessons to be learned from the Moche people.

Article: "We the People Loses Appeal With People Around the World", By Adam Liptak, NY Times, 2/6/2012
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/07/us/we-the-people-loses-appeal-with-people-around-the-world.html

Can a national constitution be compared to an operating system? Can it become obsolete?

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Where We Are Now

Article: "Enter the Anthropocene—Age of Man", By Elizabeth Kolbert, National Geographic, March 2011
http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2011/03/age-of-man/kolbert-text

Mankind's mark on the geologic record will endure longer than our cities themselves.


Generational Perspective

Article: "Generation Sell", By William Deresiewicz, NY Times, 11/12/2011
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/13/opinion/sunday/the-entrepreneurial-generation.html?pagewanted=all

The author claims we're all brands now.

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Topic - Limits to Growth?

Video: "The Story of Stuff"
http://www.storyofstuff.org/movies-all/story-of-stuff/

A compelling critique of global consumer culture.

Book Review: "The Earth Is Full", By Thomas Friedman, New York Times, 6/7/2011
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/08/opinion/08friedman.html

Video: "The Great Disruption: How humankind can thrive in the 21st Century", The Royal Society of Arts
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tsXID1kSuf4

Paul Gilding's book, "The Great Disruption", declares that the era of growing GDP's is over, to the benefit of all humankind.

Paper: "Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds", By Robert J. Gordon, National Bureau of Economic Research, August 2012
http://faculty-web.at.northwestern.edu/economics/gordon/Is%20US%20Economic%20Growth%20Over.pdf

The author contends that growth in GDP for the U.S. will fall below 0.5 % in the decades to come.

Video: "The Magic Washing Machine", TED talk By Hans Rosling, 2011
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZoKfap4g4w&list=PLAD53BD53C7A23E96

Can every household on earth have a washing machine of their own?

Video: Zoologist David Suzuki discusses exponential growth.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8x98KFcMJeo

How much time would the discovery of several panet's worth of resources buy the human race?

Video: "The Population Bomb?", By Retro Report, The New York Times, 2015
http://www.nytimes.com/video/us/100000003712862/the-population-bomb.html

What happened to the Malthusian prediction in the late 1960's about overpopulation?

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Topic - The modern corporation

DVD: "The Corporation", Documentary By Mark Achbar, Jennifer Abbott, and Joel Bakan, 2005
http://hellocoolworld.com/files/TheCorporation/TC.pdf

A film that examines the predominant institution of the modern world - the corporation. What kind of person is it?

Video: "On Better Business", Talk By Jay Coen Gilbert, TEDxPhilly, 2012
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pscH_iPhWxk

The newest form of corporate structure - the B Corp. Can concern for all stakeholders be the key to business sustainability and value for investors and shareholders?

Video: "Invest In Social Change", Talk By Toby Eccles, TED, 2013
https://www.ted.com/talks/toby_eccles_invest_in_social_change?language=en

Can Social Impact Bonds reduce prison recidivism?

Documentary: "The Persuaders", PBS Frontline, 2005
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/persuaders/

A documentary that explores the power of media, especially advertising, in our society.

Article: "How Companies Learn Your Secrets", By Charles Duhigg, New York Times, 2/16/2012
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/19/magazine/shopping-habits.html?pagewanted=all

Target knows your teenage daughter is pregnant, even if you don't.

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Special Topic: Inequality

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Paradigm Shift

Video: Race Against the Machine: Andrew McAfee at TEDxBoston

Article: "More Jobs Predicted for Machines, Not People", By Steve Lohr, NY Times, 10/23/2011
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/24/technology/economists-see-more-jobs-for-machines-not-people.html?_r=0

The Droids have come to take your job.

Article: "The End of the Developing World", By Dayo Olopade, NY Times, 2/28/2014
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/01/opinion/sunday/forget-developing-fat-nations-must-go-lean.html?_r=0

1st world problems, 3rd world solutions.

Article: "The Technologist's Siren Song", By W. Patrick McCray, The Chronicle of Higher Education, 3/10/2014
http://chronicle.com/article/The-Technologists-Siren-Song/145107/?cid=wc&utm_source=wc&utm_medium=en

Is technology the "opiate of intellectuals"?

Animation: "21st Century Enlightenment", lecture by Matthew Taylor, for the Royal Society for the Arts (RSA), 2010
http://comment.rsablogs.org.uk/2010/08/23/rsa-animate-21st-century-enlightenment/

How much do cultural perspectives affect societal outcomes? The author quotes Margaret Mead, "Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has."

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View of the future: The Third Wave

Video: "Revolutionary Wealth", interview with Alvin Toffler
http://fora.tv/2006/05/16/Alvin_Toffler#fullprogram

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View of the future: The Singularity

Video: "How Technology Will Transform Us", talk by Ray Kurzweil, TED Talks
http://www.ted.com/talks/ray_kurzweil_on_how_technology_will_transform_us.html

Charts from "The Singularity Is Near"

Themes from Kurzweil's book, "The Singularity", about a fusion of humanity and technology.

Article: "The Promise of Rapture for a High-Tech Elite", By Elizabeth Lesly Stevens, NY Times 4/23/2011
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/24/us/24bcstevens.html

Kevin Kelly critiques the idea of the Singularity.

Journal Paper: "A possible declining trend for worldwide innovation", By Jonathan Huebner, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2005
http://accelerating.org/articles/InnovationHuebnerTFSC2005.pdf

A rebuttal to the idea of accelerating innovation.

Article: "Why the future doesn't need us", By Bill Joy, Wired Magazine, April 2000
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.04/joy.html

Bill Joy's influential article widely seen as a rebuttal to the more utopian views held by Kurzweil.

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View of the future: The Technium

Video: "What Technology Wants", talk by Kevin Kelly, TEDxSF
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nF-5CMozGWY

Podcast: "What Technology Wants", talk by Kevin Kelly, Microsoft Research
http://msrvideo.vo.msecnd.net/rmcvideos/140924/dl/140924.mp4

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Signs of Hope

Open Source Ecology, a web site supporting the off-the-grid economy with open source hardware and software

Video: "Global Village Construction Set", presentation by Marcin Jakubowski, TED Talks
http://vimeo.com/30171620

Can DIY save the planet?

Video: Crowdsourced Prosthetics from OpenSource.org
http://opensource.com/life/14/3/3D-printed-hand-enable

A global group of 3D printing enthusiasts giving a hand to those in need, literally.

Video: "Cloud Computing for Good" (11:00 - 26:00)
http://poptech.org/blog/cloud_computing_for_good

Providing mobile payments, weather reports, communications and independence for people who make less than $1 a day.

Article: "Foldit Gamers Solve Riddle of HIV Enzyme within 3 Weeks", By Michael J. Coren, Scientific American, 9/20/2011
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/foldit-gamers-solve-riddle/

Journal Paper: "Crystal structure of a monomeric retroviral protease solved by protein folding game players", by Firas Khatib (et al), Nature Structure and Molecular Biology 9/18/2011
http://www.cs.washington.edu/homes/zoran/NSMBfoldit-2011.pdf

Gamers in a crowdsourced application solve a problem supercomputers couldn't.

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