Calculated Bets: Computers, Gambling, and Mathematical Modeling to Win!

This is a book about a gambling system that works. It tells the story of how the author used computer simulation and mathematical modeling techniques to predict the outcome of jai-alai matches and bet on them successfully -- increasing his initial stake by over 500% in one year! His method can work for anyone: at the end of the book he tells the best way to watch jai-alai, and how to bet on it. With humor and enthusiasm, Skiena details a life-long fascination with the computer prediction of sporting events. Along the way, he discusses other gambling systems, both successful and unsuccessful, for such games as lotto, roulette, blackjack, and the stock market. Indeed, he shows how his jai-alai system functions just like a miniature stock trading system. Do you want to learn about program trading systems, the future of Internet gambling, and the real reason brokerage houses don't offer mutual funds that invest at racetracks and frontons? How mathematical models are used in political polling? The difference between correlation and causation? If you are curious about gambling and mathematics, odds are this is the book for you! Calculated Bets: Computers, Gambling, and Mathematical Modeling to Win is copublished by Cambridge University Press and the Mathematical Association of America.

``One of the best math books I've read in years.'' -- Keith Devlin, National Public Radio

``I couldn't put it down. The informal style is terrific; we should have more books written this way.'' -- Persi Diaconis, Stanford University

Excerpts from book

• 1. Introduction
• 2. The Making of a Gambler
• 3. What is Jai-Alai?
  • The Basques
  • Other Betting Systems
• 4. Monte Carlo on the Tundra
  • Generating Random Numbers
• 5. The Impact of the Internet
  • The Coming of the Web
  • Languages of the Internet: Perl and HTML
• 6. Is this Bum any Good?
  • Probability versus Statistics
  • Jai-Alai Players and Baseball Players
• 7. Modeling the Payoffs
  • Parimutuel Wagering
  • The Problem of Overfitting Data
• 8. Engineering the System
  • Elegance in Software Systems
  • Internet Gambling
• 9. Putting My Money Where My Mouth Is
• 10. How Should You Bet?
• 11. Projects to Ponder
• Bibliography
• Index

Reviews of Calculated Bets

• ``A fascinating, unusual, and entertainingly written book that manages to captivate and inform at the same time. A superb account of how to apply mathematics to a real world problem. One of the best math books I've read in years.'' -- Keith Devlin, National Public Radio and author of The Math Gene
• ``A well told story by a guy who really knows his stuff. I couldn't put it down. The informal style is terrific; we should have more books written this way. The mathematics and the computer science are all shuffled together, which is the way problems like this are really solved. Using personal stories as examples is a great way to get the point across. Skiena really knows how to teach.'' -- Persi Diaconis, Stanford University
• ``Basic mathematics, wagering, and a genuine appreciation of sports converge as Steven Skiena explores virtually very tangible facet involved in predicting the outcome of jai-alai matches. Skiena's Calculated Bets stands as a practical, applicable, and thoroughly executed example of how mathematical theory extends far beyond the academic boundaries in which so many of us attempt to contain it.'' -- Mark Balestra, author of The Complete Idiot's Guide to Online Gambling
• ``This funny and utterly compelling book is the story of how Skiena and his students constructed an embarrassingly successful computer program called Maven.'' -- from the full review in New Scientist by Tony Jones, author of Splitting the Second.
• ``An interesting story of a student turned professor's travels through the world of gambling and investment games. The book is easy to follow and provides insight to the beginning student of gambling games. Jai Alai is the main focus on the tour, this is a most interesting game, and the author knows a lot about it.'' -- William T. Ziemba, Univ. of British Columbia and author of The Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets
• ``...very few of us can turn our non-mathematical hobbies into papers or books.....Skiena has managed to get a book out of his hobby....the book is well written and intereseting....should have a wide audience...high school student...grad student or professor would benefit from it....The key is that all the math here is motivated by solving a real world problem, and that has a certain appeal.'' -- Bill Gasarch, Univ. of Maryland, from his review in SIGACT News.
• ``In conclusion, this book is a must for gambling enthusiasts. It gives a very good account of how technology and mathematics can assist in improving the odds for a knowledgeable gambler. It is also an excellent read for academics and students on how technology can be applied to the real world with profitable results. In fact, the author provides a list of interesting projects that researchers may wish to carry out. This book is an excellent investment.'' -- Dr. Clarence Tan, from his review for ACM Computing Reviews, July 2002.
• ``Although I don ot have a particular interest in gambling at jai-alai, I found the book to be a very enjoyable read.... I recommend this book for anyone who is curious about how mathematics and simulation can be used to learn how to win at gambling.'' -- Jim Albert, Bowling Green State University, from his review for The American Statistician

Related Links

My books include:

• The Algorithm Design Manual.
• Implementing Discrete Mathematics
• Calculated Bets in hardcover and paperback, and in Great Britain and Germany!

• Links to all sites described in my book.
• Official fronton sites for Dania, Miami, Fort Pierce, Ocala.
• Rest in Peace Milford (ended December 2001) and Newport jai-alai (ended July 13, 2003)
• Schedule and result data from Milford jai-alai between 1996-2001. It is presented as a gzipped tar file. This will be very useful to anyone building and evaluating jai-alai betting systems.
• Source code in C of our Monte Carlo jai-alai simulation. We will not be liable for any damages caused by the use of this program. In particular, we take no responsibility for any gambling losses by people foolish enough to bet on the results of this program.
• Check out jai-alai action photos from the book.
• See press articles citing me as a gambling expert.
• The Tiger's Jai-Alai Talk bulletin board has interesting discussions, including some about Calculated Bets!
• Learn to play jai-alai at the Jai-alai Academy.
• Good summary pages on jai-alai include geometry.net and dmoz.org.
• International sites for jai-alai include Australia and the Philippines.
• Gambler's Anonymous is an international organization dedicated to helping problem gamblers.
• Resources on the mathematics of cardcounting in blackjack, including Thorp's book The Mathematics of Gambling.
• The Cambridge University Press link to Calculated Bets.

Goals of the Book

I tell this story as a vehicle to introduce to explain several things which have long interested me:

• The Power of Mathematical Modeling -- Mathematical models govern our economy and help forecast our weather. They predict who will win the election and decide whether your mortgage should be granted. However, the man on the street has at best a dim understanding of what mathematical models are and how they work. In this book, I use our jai-alai system to thoroughly explain how mathematical models are designed, built, and validated.
• The Craft of Computer Programming -- For most people, the ideas behind modern computing systems lie shrouded beneath a thick mist of buzzwords and technology. They do not understand the process by which computer programs are made to work, and the elegance and beauty which underlies the best software. In this book, I will show how my students and I built a very interesting computer program which works completely without operator intervention, even phoning in our bets for us. I use our jai-alai system to explain to the layman such computer science concepts as parsing and why the Millennium bug is hard to kill, why real programmers hate Microsoft, and the real glories of the Internet.
• The Joys of Jai-Alai -- Jai-alai is a spectator sport and gambling venue which is under appreciated and misunderstood by the public. I'd like to acquaint a new audience with the history and color of this fun and exciting sport; and whet the interest of current fans by making them more aware of what determines the outcome of each match. Finally, I'll tell the reader the best way to watch jai-alai, and to bet on it.
• The Mathematics of Money -- Gambling and mathematics have a long and interesting history together. I'll discuss other gambling systems, both successful and unsuccessful, for such games as lotto, roulette, blackjack, and Wall Street. Indeed, my jai-alai system functions very much as a stock trading system in miniature. The reader will learn how program trading systems work, the future of Internet gambling, and the real reason brokerage houses don't offer mutual funds that invest at racetracks and frontons.